Matching Relationship Between Wind and Solar Installed Capacity Growth and Pumped Storage Capacity from 2020 to 2024
2020—2024年风光装机增长与抽水蓄能容量匹配关系

摘要

为了分析风光装机快速增加背景下抽水蓄能的发展节奏，根据国家能源局等有关部门发布的 2020-2024 年全国风电、太阳能发电和抽水蓄能装机数据，建立存量匹配率、增量匹配率和容量增长弹性指 标。结果表明：风光合计装机由534 GW增至1408 GW，增长163.7%；抽水蓄能由31.49 GW增至58.69 GW，增 长86.4%。抽水蓄能和风光装机的存量比例由原来的5.90%下降到现在的4.17%，减少了1.73个百分点；容 量增长弹性为0.642，说明抽蓄装机的增长速度低于风光扩张的速度。2024年抽蓄容量达到2025年规划目标 62 GW 的94.7%，总量建设接近阶段目标，但是容量比值下降并不等于系统灵活性必然不足。抽蓄评价要同调 节时长，转换效率，电网结构，市场机制以及电化学储能，需求响应等替代资源结合起来。研究认为应根据 分区净负荷和极端情况来确定长时储能的配置，用容量、电能量和辅助服务多方面收益来提高抽蓄的利用率。

Abstract

To analyze the development pace of pumped storage under the background of rapid growth in wind and solar installed capacity, this study establishes indicators including stock matching rate, incremental matching rate, and capacity growth elasticity based on national installed capacity data for wind power, solar power, and pumped storage from 2020 to 2024 released by the National Energy Administration and other relevant departments. The results show that the total installed capacity of wind and solar power increased from 534 GW to 1,408 GW, representing a growth rate of 163.7%, while pumped storage capacity increased from 31.49 GW to 58.69 GW, representing a growth rate of 86.4%. The stock ratio of pumped storage capacity to wind and solar installed capacity decreased from 5.90% to 4.17%, a decline of 1.73 percentage points. The capacity growth elasticity was 0.642, indicating that the growth rate of pumped storage installed capacity was lower than that of wind and solar expansion. In 2024, pumped storage capacity reached 94.7% of the 2025 planning target of 62 GW, showing that total capacity construction was close to the phased target. However, a decline in the capacity ratio does not necessarily mean insufficient system flexibility. The evaluation of pumped storage should be integrated with regulation duration, conversion efficiency, power grid structure, market mechanisms, electrochemical energy storage, demand response, and other alternative resources. The study suggests that the configuration of long-duration energy storage should be determined according to regional net load and extreme conditions, and that the utilization rate of pumped storage should be improved through multiple benefits from capacity, electric energy, and ancillary services.