Effectiveness Evaluation of Reservoir Group Regulation and Warning Linkage During the Haihe “23·7” Flood
海河23·7洪水水库群调蓄及预警联动效能评估

摘要

为了找到极端暴雨下流域水工程调度和预警响应的作用，以中国气象局、水利部海河水利委员会、北 京市水务局等公开资料为基础，对海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水进行事件复盘。用多源数据互证、过程指标对比、 派生指标计算的方法来分析降雨异常性、永定河工程体系削峰效果、流域水库群拦洪效益。结果表明，北京 市本次过程平均降雨量为331mm，历时83 h，比2012年“7·21”和2016年“7·20”过程平均降雨量分别增 加94.7% 和61.5%；官厅水库拦蓄上游来水0.79亿m3，下游三座调蓄工程拦蓄0.75亿m3，卢沟桥4650 m3/s 洪峰经调蓄后出境洪峰为1930m3/s，按公开断面流量计算的削峰率为58.5%，洪峰传播时间延后19h；海河流 域84座大中型水库累计拦洪超过28.5亿m3。研究认为，在极端事件中工程效能来自于预泄腾库、梯级拦蓄、 蓄滞洪区运用、基层预警行动的组合，单靠削峰率不能代替完整的防洪效益评价。事件资料要依照来源、统 计口径和行动时间统一归档，从而利于之后开展流域复盘以及预案迭代的能力。

Abstract

To identify the role of basin water project scheduling and warning response under extreme rainstorms, this study reviews the Haihe “23·7” basin-wide catastrophic flood based on publicly available materials released by the China Meteorological Administration, the Ministry of Water Resources Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission, and the Beijing Water Authority. Multi-source data cross-verification, process indicator comparison, and derived indicator calculation are used to analyze rainfall abnormality, the peak reduction effect of the Yongding River engineering system, and the flood retention benefits of reservoir groups in the basin. The results show that the average rainfall in Beijing during this event was 331 mm, lasting 83 h, which was 94.7% and 61.5% higher than the average rainfall of the “7·21” event in 2012 and the “7·20” event in 2016, respectively. Guanting Reservoir retained 79 million m3 of upstream inflow, and three downstream regulation and storage projects retained 75 million m3. After regulation and storage, the peak discharge of 4,650 m3/s at Lugou Bridge was reduced to an outbound peak discharge of 1,930 m3/s. The peak reduction rate calculated based on publicly released cross-section discharge data was 58.5%, and the flood peak propagation time was delayed by 19 h. A total of 84 large and medium-sized reservoirs in the Haihe River Basin retained more than 2.85 billion m3 of floodwater. The study suggests that, during extreme events, engineering effectiveness comes from the combined effects of pre-release and storage capacity preparation, cascade retention, flood detention area operation, and grassroots warning actions. Peak reduction rate alone cannot replace a complete evaluation of flood control benefits. Event data should be uniformly archived according to source, statistical caliber, and action time, so as to support subsequent basin-level review and emergency plan iteration.