The Impact of Changes in Population Structure on Regional Economic Growth: A Study Based on the Moderating Effect of Human Resource Quality
人口结构变迁对区域经济增长的影响——基于人力资源质量 调节效应的研究

摘要

在我国人口结构深度转型背景下，数量型人口红利持续消退，老龄化、少子化及区域人口流动失衡引发要 素配置重构，成为制约区域经济协同发展的关键因素。本文基于人力资本理论，以人力资源质量为调节变量，探究 人口结构变迁对区域经济增长的作用机制与异质性特征。研究发现，人口结构收缩通过劳动力供给约束、资本积累 放缓、内需结构失衡、产业适配错位四条路径抑制经济增长，而人力资源质量升级可有效对冲上述负面效应，且调 节效果呈现东强西弱的区域分化格局。立足区域禀赋差异，本文从人才提质、人产适配、全域布局等方面提出优化 路径，旨在为各地依托人力资本转型、推动区域经济均衡高质量发展提供理论参考。

Abstract

Against the background of China’s profound demographic transition, the quantity-based demographic dividend has continued to decline, while population aging, declining birth rates, and regional imbalances in population mobility have triggered a restructuring of factor allocation, becoming key factors that constrain coordinated regional economic development. Based on human capital theory, this paper takes human resource quality as a moderating variable and explores the mechanism and heterogeneous characteristics through which changes in population structure affect regional economic growth. The study finds that demographic contraction inhibits economic growth through four pathways: labor supply constraints, slower capital accumulation, imbalance in domestic demand structure, and mismatch in industrial adaptation. However, the upgrading of human resource quality can effectively offset these negative effects, and its moderating effect shows a regional differentiation pattern, being stronger in the east and weaker in the west. In light of differences in regional endowments, this paper proposes optimization paths from the perspectives of talent quality improvement, alignment between human resources and industrial development, and coordinated regional layout, aiming to provide theoretical reference for localities to promote human capital transformation and balanced, high-quality regional economic development.